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Global Economy

Series/Special. (2012) Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, points to uncertainty ahead of an IMF meeting in Tokyo. New.

program was likely cut short due to a recording issue

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Us 5, China 4, U.s. 4, Argentina 3, Sweden 3, C-span 2, Imf 2, United States 2, Spain 2, Barack Obama 2, Washington Post 2, Greece 2, Massachusetts 2, George Bush 1, Jim Lehrer 1, Obama 1, Jacob 1, Maurice Goldstein 1, Winslet 1, Levier 1,
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  CSPAN    Global Economy    Series/Special.  (2012) Christine Lagarde, Managing Director  
   of the International Monetary Fund, points to uncertainty...  

    September 30, 2012
    3:56 - 4:30pm EDT  

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was able to come through -- gov. of chile and it is on how latin america was able to come through. we start tonight in we would be happy for any of you who would like to join us on that occasion. yes. >> from argentina, of the frame of what you said about surveillance, i want to ask about the argentina statistics. on monday, there was a lot of expectation that the imf would make a declaration of censure because of the lack of progress in ameliorating of the quality of statistics. but in the end, they gave argentina more. i want to know what you expect. do think they can do incommoded did that do to now? if not, what will happen in december? >> thank you. you know, the quality of our
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analysis and the credibility that is associated with our work relies on the brain of our analysis and economists and also on the integrity of the data on which they base modeling in calculation and all of it. so i am determined to make sure that we have the right data. and where we have gaps, that we try to fill in gaps bewitches clearly the case in the financial sector where we -- we try to fill in the gaps, which is clearly the case in the financial sector. the argentinian like football, the real football, what is called soccer here. but we have the choice between the yellow card or the red card. [laughter] i have trust in which people can achieve. sometimes it is the best.
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so it was a yellow card good so it was not a censure. and they have three months to avoid the red card. but equally, if no progress has been made and the red card will be out. having said that, i was quite confident to see the argentinian authorities reaction over the weekend, which was a determination to work cooperatively with us. we have been there. but we want to work. we will be on the site of the table. i hope we can avoid the red card. but if the data is not suitable or corporate, that all players are the same. argentine winslet, despite how good they are at soccer. [laughter] >> thank you. >> matter --
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>> i have seen you before. [laughter] >> what is the status of the talks between detroit and greece -- between troika and agrees? there is news that there is a deadlock on the measures. we really don't know what is happening right now on the talks. and they are even saying that there is a budget shortfall of $20 billion. can you tell us what is going on? >> i would be happy to tell you what i know could i was not in the room. but i can assure you that our people, including our chief man on the man on the ground are doing everything they cannot in order to help and assist and put them back on track. i am not finished, i will address the issues now.
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we do not need to $11.5 billion in cuts. we need a series of cuts and additional revenue in order to come if you will, fill in and help the country redress its public finance situation. that is number one. no. 2, we need some structural reform. so that those who can work, who want to have these markets, they can actually do so. many of the professions i increase are still closed up. a lot of these other professions are still highly protected and locked up.
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as an example of what needs to be done in terms of structural reform. it should be entertained, not damaged or destroyed. fiscal gaps, not structural reforms. financing, clearly the result of a macro economic preservation. proceeding from privatization and liquid revenue collections. especially if you factor in more time. it is under three accounts. we need to make sure the country can be back on track. >> i would like to ask a follow- up question on the role of the
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fund in dealing with the european crisis. hypothetical, so you may prefer not to answer. there have been lots of comments on the role the fund has played. the suggestion is that new programs are needed. some have argued on one extreme that it is the major financial contributor in order to be the main levier of conditionality and a dominant role on the view that the fund would be better placed to help the country achieve this new adjustment. at the other extreme, there are people who say that the fund should not be involved at all.
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that should be left to europeans who are rich and pay for it. funded on a minority basis, as it is so -- so far between countries. the question is, what lessons can you draw from the role of the fund in the program so far that would rule out these possibilities of that type? >> there was recently a publication that assessed and reviewed our role there. it is clear that it is of a different nature, because we are not in it alone. we are operating together with the european commission, acting at the request of the euro area
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finance ministers and occasionally leaders. and with the european central bank, whose role in the process has evolved over time. i cannot say much about how good the decision made by the european central bank was in terms of having an open door to a coordinated support. but you know, your question is really about have they been able to do their job despite the circumstances. when i look at the role of be played in designing the program, when i look at the role of the are playing monitoring those programs, doing our review,
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being right in the middle, as is often the case when we are and fall, i think to myself -- this is not vastly different. we are independent. we are not the yes men of the euro partners or the central bank here -- we do our job as we should. back in the winter, the chancellor asked if we were strong enough. i have no fear in saying yes, absolutely. these of the numbers that we stand for, based on our analysis. there is no suggestion of influence of any kind. i think that we should keep up and do that job as rigorously and vigorously as we have.
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>> you mentioned the need to slow the speed of adjustments. do you feel you have prevailed on that and will prevail on that? >> fair enough, you are right, in program design there has been an occasion, certainly it was the space with -- the case with spain, where we had no program. we were not in the hot seat, if you will. but we take views on the excessive difficulty of the procedure going forward. when we finished article for, this bilateral surveillance, we assessed on the basis of the numbers that were given to us,
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as well as the forecast of deficit consolidation expected. we did say at the time that the timing seemed too short to us. and you would say that this is being heard? >> yes. >> i guess this is sort of a follow-up question from the previous. >> i see the you are taking notes. >> yes. you mentioned in your remarks that there should be less focused on target, rather more on implemented will measures. -- implementable measures. you said there was a specific target for march that was looming large in that debate. you did mention that, the role of that analysis.
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but this the emphasis of the target -- deemphasizing of the target, should that be interpreted as the next being less relevant for the continuing fund intervention? if so, does that mean that the long-term target is going to be achieved by the direct restructuring of the junior officials said to participate? and that this can be achieved in a state that may be more politically opportune? such that it does not have to basically be settled by later this month or in october? >> when i was referring to measures rather than targets, clearly i was focusing on something difficult, not the debt sustainable analysis that
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we had when we designed the program. what we have, we have. 100% in 2020 is still clearly what has been set. on the fiscal front, clearly, when there was a command that revenues be increased by a certain amount, by entering into the privatization program in due course -- as should have happened and has not happened -- whereby some cuts have to be made, probably some of the most expensive. that is what i mean by sticking to the measures, implementing, but not necessarily sticking to the targets in terms of primary deficit numbers. >> ok. >> thank you.
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i am with china central television. my question is on the quota for governance reform. he said that the numbers needed for the reform, you still needed more, at least 2% of the codes to get that part down. to some degree that is largely dependent on the united states. what is the confidence level that you have the you will see the completion of this reform before the end of the meeting this october? thank you. >> it is not just the united states. clearly, there are others, including the g-20 countries, which have rectified the reform of 2010. it is not a u.s.-centric issue.
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the u.s. has a sizable quota and is my largest shareholder, if you will. but this afternoon in that camp i certainly hope that the european authorities at large, including congress, will appreciate how needed u.s. leadership is and how needed the imf rule is going to be needed going forward. not to promote crises around the world, but it is the indirect consequences of those remote crises, including on the u.s. economy. if there is something worth learning, it is the interdependence of them. >> how confident are you?
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>> i would definitely consider it. [laughter] >> maurice goldstein. institute for international economics. managing director, thank you for a most interesting speech. >> i am always cautious when an english speaking person calls something interesting, it could make it -- could mean anything. >> you are quite right, but let me proceed anyways. [laughter] you indicated in the discussion of the eurozone, you mentioned the need for friendly measures, not just austerity. what are those growth friendly measures? why did we think that these would be sufficient to poll the eurozone out of recession? when discuss in the u.s. fiscal
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cliff, you made a helpful distinction between the medium term need for strong fiscal consolidation, and the short term need to avoid fiscal contraction. well, why is there not a similar distinction at this point in the eurozone? if not, why not? >> first of all, in the eurozone you have 17 members. i will take two examples from outside the eurozone. sweden, for instance, is traveling at 0.2% at the moment. a country like sweden can certainly take some positive steps to stimulate its economy. you would agree with me, wouldn't you?
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>> on sweden? yes. >> on the other hand, take a country like the uk. a bit controversial. the policies in so -- in place so far were highly restricted in the sense that they focused on cutting deficits. the point i am trying to make is that you cannot just have a one- size-fits-all in the euro area. greece, for instance, has numbers that are well known, and germany, it is really getting close to a neutral deficit situation. but they still have a fairly heavy debt burden on their shoulders. first, it is difficult to the country specific within the european union, even more so
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with than the eurozone. second, they are growth conducive -- there are growth conducive policies to put in place. in the short term there are budgetary allocations can be used to simulate the job market and give people training, making sure that this still fits what was described by others before me. that is one example. the second example, which has more to do with medium-term and long-term is the series of reforms within place in many of the euro area member states. stronger competition authorities for those professions in other places as well. that is what i mean by growth- friendly measures. short-term for some, no medium
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terms in results, consequences, or affects. >> a big extension of that, what is your sense of how long it will take those stressful measures of the type the mentioned to pay off? especially in terms of stimulating positive growth. i am hard pressed to give you an answer, because this is not our core expertise. better equipment has been done with more research. but the conventional wisdom is that it is more for the medium term. the economy will have the benefit of those measures tangibly in the medium term more than the short term. i know that some have slightly
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different views and they have pointed to a shorter term rather than medium term consequence. in two markets there are going to be interesting results to watch. spain and italy. it is a tedious, cumbersome, complicated process. the impact on legislation on the one hand, and how it applies to the judicial system, companies that decide they will invest because the labor market is more flexible, they will wait to see if the judicial system embarks on that same process without a very stringent caseload.
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>> when you say medium-term, the main two years, three years, five years? ok, next. >> thank you, madam, for that excellent description. i will go back to the question asked by jacob. i think there is another component that others might appreciate the answer to. you have made a robust case for external circumstance reactions. you have stated plainly today of those from a few weeks ago in cyprus that we had to talk about the financing for such a program extensions and to speak plainly about it. usually that means hair cut for official sector holders, losses, new money from the imf or
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individual creditors. i am wondering if you can provide some perspective on how to think about that combination of solutions, or are there other potential components that are being met by the debate at the moment? there is some concern. if you can provide some perspective on how to think about the passage of potential solutions that one could consider in terms of promoting stability in the financial system? >> you are very knowledgeable and mention all the components. it is either all of this or all of that, but it is not worth it to dwell on the anchor -- intricacies of how much more or less. i know the country you are
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referring to. in terms of successful reforms and financing, there is sustainability going forward so that the country can walk on its own two feet. it is a whole combination of matters that need to be dealt with by the numbers. >> thank you. >> this will be the last question. and >> i am from the brookings institution. thank you for your insightful and interesting remarks. i wanted to draw your attention to the violence see -- violence chief program that you mentioned before. in terms of the interaction that you mentioned before, you talked about spanish shield going down.
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but there was talk of an expected approached by these authorities where others believe that this might -- be effective this dampening might be more sustained. i would like to ask you to elaborate, if possible. thank you. >> i am not looking to substitute members in the judgment. what i can see, what i am very pleased to see, is that the tool box that the europeans have to face hard ship is significantly improved as a result of the decisions announced by the european central bank. clearly, that is something that was expected, and expectation that was a risen by the announcement from the president of the european central bank in london.
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besides that, the toolboxes their so that they can seem capable of being operated, as they will be operated by the eighth of november. that by itself is a strong message. >> we thank you enormously for your remarks and we wish you and your colleagues the best of success in dealing with these daunting problems. we support you strongly. thank you, particularly your remarks on [inaudible] [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2012]
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>> monday, a look at how the president of the inland states should engage the world.
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the carnegie endowment for international peace hosted this discussion on the american influence abroad and the rise of global powers, like china. coverage begins at 6:00 p.m. eastern on c-span 3. >> china has cheated and i will finally do something about it, get them down on the carpet for it and label them price and manipulators. we brought were trade cases against china in one term than the previous administration did in two. by the way, we are winning those cases. >> jim lehrer moderates from the university of denver. watch followed by two ways to follow that the debate at 9:00. c-span 2, the multi camera version of the debate.
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following your reaction, calls, e-mails, twitter messages. >> a group of political fact checkers assessed claims made by president obama and mitt romney as the campaign ahead of their first debate. they were from people with the fact, the washington post, and the -- politifact, "the washington post," and [unintelligible] this is one-and-a-half hours. >> good morning. my name is kathleen hall jamieson. i direct the annenberg public policy center at university of pennsylvania.
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welcome to our session -- this includes sessions trying to address the question, what is the role of journalism in a debunking deceptions and holding candidates accountable? to set the fringe for our discussion, we are releasing the results of a survey of adults, with a margin of error of 3.2%. we will offer as our conclusion that the public has a lot to learn about the 2012 presidential race. also, we will say that those who seek out fact checking on the internet, do no more. here are specifics. a sizable proportion of the public fails to understand the plan and records of major presidential candidates. when people watch debates, the level of knowledge improves. we expect in the second, third, and third wave of the study, to
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find that in these areas we have seen an increase of accurate reporting of candidates' stances on issues. we also see suggested evidence in the data to say that when journalism concentrates on an issue, we increase knowledge. we see evidence that there is an association between checking online with fact checkers and news sites -- it correlates with an increase in knowledge. let me turn to the findings. central elements of candidates' plans -- 65% know that barack obama proposes raising federal income taxes on households earning $250,000 or more a year. he promised that in 2008 as well, so the promise has been around for a while. less than -- barely half know that the current romney-run plan would preserve traditional medicare for the 65 or older
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and retain traditional medicare for those younger than that. 51% know that mitt romney would keep the bush tax cut in place permanently. some knowledge -- a long way to go. next slide, please. to candidates' records -- that payroll taxes increased during barack obama's time in office -- decrease during barack obama's time in office. 25.4% know more jobs were created in the first term of barack obama then the last term of george bush. that is a claim you see back- and-forth in advertising about who lost jobs and gained jobs. public confusion is to be expected. 31% knew that when mitt romney was governor of massachusetts, job growth in massachusetts improved. a claim in which democrats are trying to muddy the waters.
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in a long way to go in terms of improving pu

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